chartgrade
The Trading Bible · vol. 1

Research, not signals.

Source-cited, peer-reviewed where possible, and brutally honest about what doesn't work. The three Plain-English chapters are free to read — the rest of the library unlocks with Pro.

17 chapters~205 min total read9 categories
01

Plain English

3 chapters
Ch. 01Free6 min
How to read a chartgrade card (plain English)
Direction, conviction, buy-now, stop, target — no jargon.
Every chartgrade signal card explained in everyday language. Read this first if you're new — it's the user manual for the dashboard.
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Ch. 02Free5 min
Position sizing in 5 minutes
The 1% rule, the formula, why it matters more than your edge.
If you only learn one trading skill, learn this one. The math that keeps your account alive across losing streaks.
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Ch. 03Free8 min
The 7 mistakes that wipe out retail traders
Position size, stop-moving, revenge trading, news blackouts.
Every retail trader makes these mistakes. The published loss data backs it up. Here's how to not become a statistic.
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02

Foundations

3 chapters
Ch. 04Pro8 min
Executive summary
Why most retail FX traders lose, and what the math actually shows.
The honest framing every trader needs before placing one euro. Realistic returns, common traps, and the path forward.
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Ch. 05Pro12 min
Edges in FX: which ones survive the evidence
The Alpha Illusion paper, JP Morgan's DNA shutdown, and what actually holds up.
Which trading edges have empirical evidence behind them, which ones look like edge but aren't, and how to tell the difference.
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Ch. 06Pro10 min
Realistic returns: what good actually looks like
ESMA loss statistics, prop firm data, and honest performance bands.
If a vendor promises 30% annual returns, they're lying. Here's what the math actually says about achievable returns at retail.
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03

Risk & sizing

2 chapters
Ch. 07Pro18 min
Risk & position sizing — the survival math
Kelly criterion, correlation budgets, black-swan defense.
Position sizing is more important than entry timing for long-term survival. The math of Kelly, correlation, and drawdown recovery.
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Ch. 08Pro12 min
Systematic trading doctrine
Universal rules across FX, equities, commodities, crypto.
The hard-won universal rules that survive every market and every era.
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04

Strategies that work

1 chapter
Ch. 09Pro15 min
10 academic strategies, ranked by retail viability
Dollar Carry, Global Imbalance, FX Value, Three-Factor, and what to skip.
The peer-reviewed strategies with empirical edge. Not signal-service hype — real journal papers, retail-adapted.
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05

Data & backtesting

2 chapters
Ch. 12Pro16 min
Backtesting & data — how to not lie to yourself
Walk-forward, Deflated Sharpe, look-ahead bias, cost modeling.
The honest backtest protocol. Walk-forward, multiple-testing correction, realistic costs. The math that catches survivorship bias.
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Ch. 13Pro12 min
What 15 years of real data actually shows
The unflinching backtest results, including what didn't work.
We tested every strategy in this system on 15 years of real Yahoo data for 7 majors. The results — including the failures.
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06

Cross-asset

1 chapter
Ch. 10Pro16 min
Cross-asset systematic strategies
Why diversification doubles your effective edge.
FX-only is structurally undersized. The math of cross-asset diversification and the specific instruments to add.
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07

Event-driven

1 chapter
Ch. 11Pro14 min
Event-driven FX strategies
Pre-FOMC drift, NFP, BoJ interventions, carry unwinds.
Specific tactical patterns tied to scheduled and unscheduled events — what's real and what's been arbitraged away.
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08

Positioning

2 chapters
Ch. 14Pro15 min
Positioning & flows — what real money is doing
COT reports, ETF flows, options skew, the legal alternative to scraping.
How to read CFTC COT, ETF flows, and options positioning. Free, legal, signal-bearing — vs. Twitter scraping which is none of those.
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Ch. 15Pro18 min
Political & policy event data — the legal sources
Polymarket, FRED, Capitol Trades, ACLED, GDELT. Trump on Iran without scraping.
How to monitor what politicians are saying and doing using free, legal, public data. Real-money prediction markets, official feeds, and a calibrated reaction matrix for the next Iran-style headline.
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09

Operational

2 chapters
Ch. 16Pro12 min
Brokers & regulation — choosing where to trade
EU/NL broker guide, MiFID II, what to avoid offshore.
Which brokers to use as an EU/NL resident, why offshore brokers are dangerous, and how to read regulatory fine print.
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Ch. 17Pro8 min
Where the system stands today
Ship state, what's working, what's next.
Current state of the chartgrade system + what's on the roadmap.
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The reading rule

If a chapter contradicts something you read elsewhere, check the citation here first. If you find a math error in any chapter, email math@chartgrade.app — confirmed bugs earn a year of Trader tier.